Taking the Volt to task

on Mar 04 in Uncategorized tagged by Trevor Hicks

My old Schlumberger readers know that I have predicted that plug-in hybrids like the soon-to-be-released Chevy Volt are the future of the auto industry.  As fuel prices rise and climate change controls increase, this technology will prove to be quite popular.  Plug-in hybrids will offer the combination of access to the grid that delivers economies of scale on power generation and emissions control as well as fuel source flexibility and a gasoline engine to provide additional power and range beyond what a battery-only vehicle can deliver.  And it does this without necessitating any major change to our existing power or gasoline refining, distribution and retailing infrastructure as would be required for fuel cells or even for CNG.  All most people would have to add is a new electrical outlet in their garage.  In case you are wondering I’m guessing that $4 to $5 gasoline will be the norm for American drivers by 2015.

But the first incarnation of this plug-in hybrid technology has problems.  I posted earlier this year noting the expected cost of a Chevy Volt at about $40,000 made it twice as expensive as a comparably equipped fuel-efficient Honda Civic.  Now, some researchers at Carnegie Mellon have expressed their opinion that the vehicle is simply incorrectly spec’ed.  The batteries required to give it a 40 mile range on charge are just too heavy and expensive to be cost effective.  Fortunately for my hypothesis, they ran some analysis indicating that a 20 mile range setup could be both economical and still useful for a substantial portion of the market.